Decline Effects – Types, Mechanisms, and Personal Reflections

It is tempting to believe that scientific findings provide an accurate account of enduring reality. The indisputable success of the scientific enterprise is testament to the significant degree to which initially reported findings can be replicated and built upon. Nevertheless, a substantial number of findings are less robust and less substantial than they initially appear.

Some effects that were present have declined over time. Appreciation of the unreliability of scientific findings has led to what some have termed the replication crisis, as a variety of areas including biology (Begley & Ellis, 2012), psychology (Bakker, van Dijk, & Wicherts, 2012), and genetics (Siontis, Patsopoulos, & Ioannidis, 2010) have come to recognize – that a striking number of studies in their respective fields no longer replicate.

The article was published in: Psychological science under scrutiny: Recent challenges and proposed solutions, S. O. Lilienfeld and I. D. Waldman (Eds.). 85-106.

Full article

This work was supported (in part) by the Fetzer Franklin Fund of the John E. Fetzer Memorial Trust.